What drives deal returns?
The value of a business will vary over time depending on the business prospects, the sector outlook and the macro economic environment of the time – all of which influence the expected risk of investing in a business and possible return which may be achieved.
When looking at the return on investment achieved, this can be broken down into three components:
1. Market movements
Changes in expectations for the business arising from market conditions and the economic outlook will influence the value at exit vs. the value at initial investment date.
2. Additional leverage
The vast majority of mature businesses have some element of debt as part of their capital structure, as this can be a cost-effective way to finance their operations.
A standard part of the private equity tool kit is to use bank or other debt to fund a portion of the acquisition value. As the cost of debt (i.e. the interest paid) is intended to be less than the return generated by the investment overall, additional leverage can boost the returns to equity.
3. Strategic and operational improvement
PE firms work with management teams to make significant operational and strategic improvements in the businesses they invest in – whether that be developing new products, entering new markets or funding a new factory.
There is no definitive approach to estimating the different components of deal returns, however this approach reflects key contributions to value creation and has been presented consistently in this report over several years.